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Lanfear: Lizzy & Luck
Mon Aug 13 01:28:35 2001
To: Tokugawa Lizzy all
Hey all,

First of all, Tokugawa ...thanks for a great quest!!
It was a lot of fun running around like nuts, and seeing
the whole mud run around like crazy too!
(chasing monkeys...MUHA!)

Secondly, I loved the fact that people weren't begging for id's.
...For the first time, refresh-spell was "most wanted". :P

And last, but not least, Lizzy....
GRATZ on finding 4 'winner' notes! (wooo!)
I am not much of a mathematic, but here goes:
16 prizes ... 225 monkeys... chance on finding 4 prizes:
16/225 x 15/224 x 14/223 x 13/222 = 0.0000175 (roughly)..
ok, ok...you probably found more then 4 notes..and there
were a lot of ppl killing monkeys (poor buggers).. but hey,
Even if I calculated it all wrong... finding 4 notes is
amazing, even if you would have killed 20 monkeys.
Liz, you must have Lloth's own luck!

ok...back to xp-ing!

Lanfear, Daughter of the Night (8 monkeys -> 0 winners)

and

Lizzy: Re: Lanfear's note on my luck
Mon Aug 13 02:41:09 2001
To: all
Hello all,

16 prize monkeys on 225 monkeys in total... that means that you have
6.3% chance on finding a winner on any one monkey.
I found 9 monkeys, so statistics would suggest I would have about 56%
chance on finding ONE winner :-)
I found 4 winners.. and that's about 7 times the number statistics
would suggest... so what does this teach us?
a> Statistics... well.. the chance they work out... is very small
b> I am extraordinarily lucky! <- My score says so :P
c> I've wasted some of your time...

Lizzy

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